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We use USGS “Back-in-Time” (BIT) fractional component cover data for rangeland functional groups (sagebrush, shrub, herbaceous, annual herbaceous, litter, and bare ground) and climate data from 1985 to 2018 (Rigge et al. 2019 ) in conjunction with soils and topography data to develop models describing the empirical spatio-temporal variation in cover across the sagebrush biome of the Western U.S (Rigge et al. In Review). Our primary objective is to apply the models developed over the 1985-2018 reference period to future weather conditions based on two emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5) and three time periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) to evaluate change in functional group abundance within the respective range of each across an unprecedented extent. The RCP climate projections represent the average of 15 models (CanESM2, ACCESS1.0, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR, CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO Mk 3.6, GFDL-CM3, INM-CM4, MRI-CGCM3, MIROC-ESM, CESM1-CAM5, GISS-E2R). We then model component cover under these scenarios and evaluate spatial and temporal patterns of change relative to the reference period. The projections can be used to inform management to prepare for future vegetation composition and cover through the prioritization of conservation and restoration and shed light on species range shifts. |
| summary:
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We use USGS “Back-in-Time” (BIT) fractional component cover data for rangeland functional groups (sagebrush, shrub, herbaceous, annual herbaceous, litter, and bare ground) and climate data from 1985 to 2018 (Rigge et al. 2019 ) in conjunction with soils and topography data to develop models describing the empirical spatio-temporal variation in cover across the sagebrush biome of the Western U.S (Rigge et al. In Review). Our primary objective is to apply the models developed over the 1985-2018 reference period to future weather conditions based on two emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5) and three time periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) to evaluate change in functional group abundance within the respective range of each across an unprecedented extent. The RCP climate projections represent the average of 15 models (CanESM2, ACCESS1.0, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR, CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO Mk 3.6, GFDL-CM3, INM-CM4, MRI-CGCM3, MIROC-ESM, CESM1-CAM5, GISS-E2R). We then model component cover under these scenarios and evaluate spatial and temporal patterns of change relative to the reference period. The projections can be used to inform management to prepare for future vegetation composition and cover through the prioritization of conservation and restoration and shed light on species range shifts. |
| accessInformation:
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U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Bureau of Land Management (BLM) |
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| maxScale:
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144148.179080075 |
| typeKeywords:
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["Data","Service","Image Service","ArcGIS Server"] |
| description:
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Climate change over the past century has altered vegetation community composition and species distributions across rangelands in the western United States. The scale and magnitude of climatic influences are unknown. While a number of studies have projected the impacts of climate change using several modeling approaches, none has evaluated impacts to fractional component cover at a 30-m resolution across the full sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) biome. We used fractional component cover data for rangeland functional groups and weather data from the 1985 to 2018 reference period in conjunction with soils and topography data to develop empirical models describing the spatio-temporal variation in component cover. To investigate the ramifications of future change across the western US, we extended models based on historical relationships over the reference period to model landscape effects based on future weather conditions from two emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5) and three time periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). We tested both Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and regression tree models, finding that the former led to superior spatial and statistical results. Our results suggest more xeric vegetation across most of the study area, with an increasing dominance of non-sagebrush shrubs, annual herbaceous, and bare ground over herbaceous and sagebrush cover in both RCP scenarios. In general, both scenarios yielded similar results, but RCP 8.5 tended to be more extreme, with greater change relative to the reference period. Results demonstrate that in cool sites some degree of warming to growing season maximum temperature or non-growing season minimum temperature could be beneficial to sagebrush and shrub growth. This is not the case, regardless of temperature, for non-growing season maximum temperature. This information can be used to inform management to prepare for future vegetation composition and cover through the prioritization of conservation and restoration and shed light on species’ range shifts. |
| licenseInfo:
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There is no guarantee of warranty concerning the accuracy of the data. Users should be aware that these data were developed from models which can contain some local error. Users should not use these data for critical applications without a full awareness of their limitations. Acknowledgement of the originating agencies would be appreciated in products derived from these data. Any user who modifies these data is obligated to describe the types of modifications they perform. User specifically agrees not to misrepresent the data, nor to imply that changes made were approved or endorsed by the U.S. Geological Survey. Please refer to https://www.usgs.gov/privacy.html for the USGS disclaimer. |
| catalogPath:
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| title:
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Sage_2020s_RCP_8_5_tif |
| type:
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Image Service |
| url:
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https://gisu.rdc.isu.edu/server |
| tags:
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["biota","environment","geoscientificInformation","imageryBaseMapsEarthCover","shrubland ecosystems","terrestrial ecosystems","shrublands","trends","grassland change","shrubland change","vegetation change","climate change","rangeland management","shrub","sagebrush","herbaceous","annual herbaceous","litter","grass","vegetation","bare ground","rangeland","shrubland","United States","Washington","Oregon","Montana","North Dakota","South Dakota","Wyoming","Idaho","Nebraska","Nevada","Utah","California","Colorado","Arizona","New Mexico","NM","AZ","CO","CA","UT","NV","NE","ID","WY","SD","ND","MT","OR","WA","Great Basin","Arizona Plateau","Black Hills","Blue Mountains","Colorado Plateau","Columbia Plateau","Grand Canyon","Middle Rockies","Rocky Mountains","Gunnison","Sonoran Desert","Southwest Tablelands","Three Forks","Wasatch","Western US","Yellowstone","Northern Mountains","Snake River Plain"] |
| culture:
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en-US |
| name:
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Sage_2020s_RCP_8_5_tif |
| guid:
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| minScale:
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9225483.46112482 |
| spatialReference:
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NAD_1983_Idaho_TM |